{"id":457,"date":"2024-05-16T21:32:31","date_gmt":"2024-05-17T04:32:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/labs.wsu.edu\/drgengpingzhu\/?page_id=457"},"modified":"2025-07-17T14:42:51","modified_gmt":"2025-07-17T21:42:51","slug":"emerald-ash-borer","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/labs.wsu.edu\/drgengpingzhu\/emerald-ash-borer\/","title":{"rendered":"Emerald Ash Borer in the Pacific Northwest"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Emerald ash borer is one of the most destructive invasive pests in central and eastern United States, it has killed ten millions ash trees in > 30 states and severely altered ecosystems that depending on these ash trees. While emerald ash borer is established in eastern North America, it was recently detected in Forest Grove, Oregon and in Vancouver, British Columbia, raising concerns that it may spread across the Pacific Northwest riparian ecosystems dominated by ash. Its Oregon establishment is of great concern, as it could devastate ash swales and sensitive riparian zones, the loss of these trees could further endanger wildlife that depend on forested wetlands. In response to its establishment, Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) has adopted a quarantine area to slow the spread of EAB by restricting the movement of host tree materials to unaffected locations in the state, the alive monitoring of EAB spread can be found here<\/a>. The complete guide to EAB can be found here<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Potential dispersal of emerald ash borer in the Pacific Northwest<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gengping Zhu, Max Ragozzino, Mark Cody Holthouse, Mattthew Mills, Jessica L Celis, Stacy Johnson, David W Crowder (2025) Ecological niche modeling and potential dispersal of emerald ash borer in the Pacific Northwest. Journal of Economic Entomology, toaf175, https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1093\/jee\/toaf175<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

We used habitat suitability models and dispersal simulations to predict the potential spread of emerald ash borer. Specifically, we compared climate spaces occupied by Oregon and British Columbia populations with other native and introduced populations, and then used habitat suitability models and dispersal simulations to predict future distributions. We show that the newly established Oregon and British Columbia populations currently occupy relatively narrow climate niche, and many suitable niche spaces are unoccupied in the Pacific Northwest, indicating potential for range expansion. We also show there are vast areas of suitable habitat that extend south of the present quarantine zone throughout inland western Oregon and north into Washington. In Vancouver, the most suitable habitat was found along the Fraser River, where emerald ash borer could disperse inland. Dispersal models suggest that, without intervention, emerald ash borer could disperse into Washington within 2 yr, throughout western Oregon in 15 yr, and reach California in 20 yr. Our work supports intensive quarantine efforts for emerald ash borer and identifies areas where monitoring and management efforts should focus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Fig. 1.<\/strong> Comparing climate niche spaces occupied by the introduced Oregon and British Columbia populations with populations in Asia, Europe, and eastern North America. Scatterplots show A) annual trends, B) extreme temperature, or C) extreme precipitation conditions associated with the above populations. Panel D) shows the realized climate niche occupied by emerald ash borer populations in reduced dimensions (principal components PC1 and PC2).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here is the potential distributions of emerald ash borer in the Pacific, which were developed based on physiological and 5 correlative niche models. The correlative niche models were generated by Maxent distributional models, that used the pooled native and introduced occurrence records, together with the annual trends and extremes of temperature and precipitation, and prevalence of deciduous trees as predictors. Model was produced following the best practice:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Fig. 2.<\/strong> Individual model habitat suitability predictions in the Pacific Northwest. The habitat suitability was estimated by a physiological model (physical model) and 5 correlative niche models, ie GAM, BRT, GLM, RF, and Maxent. Warm red colors indicate high suitability, white dots denote emerald ash border detections in Oregon and British Columbia, white solid line denotes the quarantine areas established by the Oregon Department of Agriculture, and the slash area denotes Oregon ash distribution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Fig. 3.<\/strong> Ensemble habitat suitability model prediction for emerald ash borer in the Pacific Northwest. Bivariate maps denote ensemble predictions and their uncertainty; the increasing intensities of yellow represent increasing habitat suitability, and increasing blue represent increasing uncertainty. Insert panels on central map A) denote ensemble prediction around recent detections (white plus) in Oregon B) and British Columbia C). The white solid line denotes the quarantine areas established by the Oregon Department of Agriculture, and the slash area denotes Oregon ash distribution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An interactive website was also developed to display the habitat suitability:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/gpzhu.github.io\/eabInPacific\/EAB_ensemble.html<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Emerald ash borer is one of the most destructive invasive pests in central and eastern United States, it has killed ten millions ash trees in > 30 states and severely altered ecosystems that depending on these ash trees. While emerald ash borer is established in eastern North America, it was recently detected in Forest […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":39637,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":[],"wsuwp_university_location":[],"wsuwp_university_org":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/labs.wsu.edu\/drgengpingzhu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/457"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/labs.wsu.edu\/drgengpingzhu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/labs.wsu.edu\/drgengpingzhu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/labs.wsu.edu\/drgengpingzhu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/39637"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/labs.wsu.edu\/drgengpingzhu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=457"}],"version-history":[{"count":14,"href":"https:\/\/labs.wsu.edu\/drgengpingzhu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/457\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":573,"href":"https:\/\/labs.wsu.edu\/drgengpingzhu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/457\/revisions\/573"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/labs.wsu.edu\/drgengpingzhu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=457"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"wsuwp_university_location","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/labs.wsu.edu\/drgengpingzhu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/wsuwp_university_location?post=457"},{"taxonomy":"wsuwp_university_org","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/labs.wsu.edu\/drgengpingzhu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/wsuwp_university_org?post=457"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}